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Countries are investing heavily in modernizing their underwater fleets, and Europe is no exception. Germany in particular is strengthening cooperation with Norway, which underlines the strategic value of these ships in current geopolitics.
A modest ceremony takes place in the naval port of Haakonsvern, against the backdrop of Norway’s rocky coastline and the vastness of the Atlantic Ocean. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and his Norwegian counterpart, Björn Arild Gram, crouch over a small hole in the ground and place a few objects inside. A brass band plays a short tune. The two politicians exchange handshakes, hugs and pats on the back. The whole thing was completed in 10 minutes.
What may seem unremarkable marks an important milestone. Last week, Pistorius and Gram laid the foundation stone for a Norwegian-German submarine maintenance center in Bergen, which should be operational by the end of the decade. For the first time in NATO history, Germany and Norway are joining forces on submarines.
The partnership includes joint procurement of submarines, shared crew training and even the ability to deploy the ships jointly. “This is a blueprint for NATO as a whole,” Pistorius said in Bergen, stressing that Germany and Norway are ready to take the lead in strengthening the alliance’s submarine capabilities.
It is a striking turnaround. Just seven years ago, Germany faced a submarine crisis: none of its six 212A submarines were operational. A combination of accidents, chronic spare parts shortages and underfunding had cast serious doubt on the future of these expensive, technically advanced and militarily critical ships. Questions arose about whether the Federal Republic could still maintain such an expensive weapon system.
Today, more than three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, few in NATO or the German government doubt the strategic value of submarines. NATO defense plans now call for the Bundeswehr to maintain five submarines on high operational readiness by 2031 – a tall order considering Germany’s current fleet of just six. So the German Navy is pushing for new boats to meet the alliance’s demands.
In 2017, Germany and Norway agreed to jointly purchase new submarines. Shortly afterwards, the U212CD – «Common Design» – a larger and more capable variant of the 212A-class fuel cell powered submarine was introduced. Norway initially promised to buy four boats for €4.5 billion, while Germany ordered two for €2.8 billion. Berlin has since decided to purchase four more submarines, while Oslo plans to buy two more.
This billion-euro German-Norwegian submarine program was officially launched last year with the laying of the keel of the first ship at the ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems or TKMS shipyard in Kiel. The submarine is scheduled to enter service with the Norwegian Navy in 2029, a six-year construction timeline typical for such machines. TKMS is expanding its production capabilities with a second assembly line in Wismar, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
The clock is ticking. Russia, China and the United States has been modernizing its submarine fleets on a large scale for years, and submarines are growing in importance in the armed forces of many other countries. Underwater fleets are being overhauled all over the world.
The reason for this increase is the continued military significance of submarines. These ships operate autonomously and are as stealthy as they are disruptive, forcing adversaries to devote significant resources to countering their presence. Few warships dare to cross the waters patrolled by submarines because the odds are stacked against them.
Broadly speaking, submarines fall into two categories. Nuclear-powered submarines are equipped with onboard reactors, allowing them to remain submerged for months and reach impressive speeds. Conventional submarines, powered by diesel-electric propulsion, are slower and have much more limited underwater endurance. However, German fuel cell submarines are an exception. These boats can operate independently of surface air for weeks, albeit at a slower pace.
Nuclear submarines are further subdivided by their role. Strategic Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear submarines, or SSBNs, are equipped with nuclear missiles and serve as a deterrent and provide a second strike capability should an enemy attempt to neutralize land-based nuclear arsenals.
Ship Submersible Nuclear submarines, while also nuclear powered, are tasked with protecting important assets, such as SSBNs or aircraft carriers, from enemy submarines. Tactical Ship Submersible Guided Missile Nuclear submarines are armed with cruise or anti-ship missiles, allowing them to target conventional assets at sea or on land.
Both nuclear and conventionally powered tactical submarines also serve as effective intelligence gathering tools. Their ability to remain undetected, combined with advanced acoustic sensors, allows them to gather crucial information while remaining largely invisible.
Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet, recently reinforced with new attack submarines, has become a source of frustration for NATO. These ships play a dual role, escorting Russia’s strategic submarines – many of which remain on high alert against the United States – in critical waters such as the Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea. These regions also serve as patrol zones for American, British and French nuclear submarines, which now face the renewed threat of being shadowed by Russian attack submarines. This development complicates NATO’s efforts to ensure a credible nuclear deterrent.
Russian submarines also pose a significant threat to NATO’s missile defense systems. The alliance’s missile shield relies on both fixed land-based launch systems, including Germany’s Patriot batteries and the future Arrow systems, as well as mobile platforms deployed at sea. These include US Navy Aegis-equipped cruisers and Norwegian Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates, which are similarly equipped with Aegis air defense systems. Russian attack submarines armed with cruise and anti-ship missiles pose a growing risk to these naval assets.
An analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London shows that there are currently around 500 submarines in service worldwide. While the majority are conventional attack submarines – many of which are obsolete – about 130 are nuclear-powered and far more advanced. The United States plans to build twelve Columbia-class strategic submarines and sixteen Virginia-class attack submarines.
According to the IISSRussia has already deployed seven of its 10 planned Borei-class strategic submarines, each armed with Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles.
China is working on its Type 096 strategic submarine program, although the IISS suggests it is about a decade behind Russia’s modernization efforts. France has launched two Suffren class nuclear-powered attack submarines and is developing a new generation of strategic submarines, or SNLE-3G. Similarly, Britain has been introducing advanced attack submarines for more than a decade and is making progress on its Dreadnought-class strategic submarine program.
Submarine technology has come a long way since the Cold War. Modern ships can stay at sea for longer periods of time, dive deeper and operate more quietly, making them more difficult to detect. Equipped with advanced sensors and sonar systems, they can monitor large areas while remaining hidden. In addition to traditional missiles and torpedoes, today’s submarines can also deploy cruise missiles and target a wider range of threats. A modern submarine commanded by a skilled crew is therefore one of the most formidable opponents a navy can face.
In their ‘Naval Course 2035+’ strategy, the German naval forces foresee a future in which an integrated network of weapon systems will be essential for anti-submarine warfare. These systems include:
German submarine operations will continue to focus on the North Sea and the Baltic Sea – strategic waterways that, as during the Cold War, are crucial for containing Russia’s naval forces. Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, the head of the German Navy, describes submarines as the “first line of defense” against Russian forces at sea. However, the new generation of German submarines will not be fully operational until the end of 2030. Until then, this line of defense is likely to remain precarious.
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